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Sunday Seven: Seven questions predict breast cancer risk

Each month, about 22,000 women log on to the National Cancer Institute (NCI) web site and answer seven questions to determine their risk of developing invasive breast cancer. The Gail Model, named for the NCI's chief biostatistician, Mitchell H. Gail, generates a five-year risk and a lifetime risk for each woman who answers each of these seven questions.
  • Does the woman have a medical history of any breast cancer or of any ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) or lobular carcinoma in situ (LCIS)? Note: This assessment tool cannot accurately predict risk for a woman who already has a medical history of breast cancer.
  • What is the woman's age? Note: This tool only calculates risk for women ages 35 and older.
  • What was the woman's age at the time of her first menstrual period?
  • What was the woman's age at the time of her first live birth of a child?
  • How many of the woman's first-degree relatives -- mother, sisters, daughters -- have had breast cancer?
  • Has the woman ever had a breast biopsy? How many breast biopsies has the woman had? Has the woman had at least one breast biopsy with atypical hyperplasia?
  • What is the woman's race/ethnicity?
A simple drop-down answer menu is provided for each question, and explanations for each question are available. Upon completion of the short survey, the Gail Model spits out a five-year breast cancer risk and a lifetime breast cancer risk with comparisons to the general population of women.

While this is only an assessment -- based on statistics that do not always take into account individual differences -- it is still a helpful tool. Because it's clear that women can minimize breast cancer risk with behavior changes and sometimes medication. And generating a personal rating on risk is a rating worth knowing. It's also worth knowing that this tool was designed for use by health professionals. If you are not a health professional, consider discussing your results with your doctor.

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